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油价暴跌,听听美国能源专家怎么说

发布时间:2020-03-14

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最近,原油价格持续震荡引发广泛关注。中国社科大与美国杜兰大学合作举办的能源管理硕士(MME)项目学生也就原油价格大幅下跌的原因以及美国页岩油行业的未来走势等具体问题,与美国杜兰大学弗里曼商学院的能源专家Pierre Conner教授进行了一次线上对话。


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Pierre Conner

美国杜兰大学弗里曼商学院能源研究所负责人,管理科学实践教授。主讲能源市场、经济学与政策以及能源课题研究等课程。他还负责杜兰能源研究所的战略制定及具体运营,该研究所负责监督能源相关的学术项目,为能源行业及相关银行、咨询、金融、技术以及交易公司培养专业人才。

 

Conner 拥有近40年的能源行业运营及金融从业经验。在加入杜兰大学商学院之前,Conner 曾担任Capital One Securities公司总裁,该公司是Capital One Financial Corporation的子公司,主要从事能源证券精品投资。他还曾就职于Southcoast Capital,担任过该公司的能源分析师及股票销售研究及交易主管等职务。 在进入资本市场之前,Conner曾担任埃克森美孚国内钻井公司的工程经理,作业范围覆盖墨西哥湾、加利福尼亚近海以及阿拉斯加北坡地区,他还参与了埃克森美孚公司的合并。


Q1

Student: What are the major factors that drive oil price drop so quickly and so seriously? What will be the bottom range of this price drop?

学生:您认为导致此次油价短时间内暴跌的主要因素有哪些?此次油价波动的下限区间大概是多少? 

 

Conner:OPEC plus Russia have been cooperating to keep production off the market recently and kept an oversupply from negatively impacting prices as US production has grown to record levels and exceeded both Saudi and Russia’s production levels. Saudi made it public that when Russia did not agree to co-operate on cuts they would reduce prices and increase production to offset the lower levels of prices, compounding the problem. This happened by cutting prices to customers and stating they would increase production to take market share. The bottom of the range is usually over shot (as is the top of the range). There is not any support to speak of that will take current production off the market because incremental costs to produce oil on a cash basis are quite low could fall to $20/bbl to rebalance the market (Goldman Sachs research) Why would Russia not co-operated with Saudi? They want to try to take US production out of the equation and it has been reported Russia was with US sanctions against Rosneft and blocking Nord Stream 2 pipeline. There is not central control over US production so only price impacts activity.

 

康纳:由于美国的原油产量突破历史高点,并一举超过沙特及俄罗斯的产量水平,近期以来,OPEC+与俄罗斯都在通过合作限产来防范市场供应过剩对油价造成的负面影响。沙特曾公开表示,如果俄罗斯不同意合作减产,那么沙特将通过降价和增产来抵消油价下跌的损失,这让问题进一步恶化。如今,沙特已采取行动下调原油售价,并宣布增产计划,以占领市场份额。油价波动的下限区间通常很快就会被突破(上限区间也是如此)。目前尚没有任何助力因素将当前的产量清出市场,这是因为原油生产的现金增量成本已经处于低位,并可能进一步下滑至20美元/桶以重新平衡市场(来自:高盛研究)。至于为什么俄罗斯不与沙特合作?原因是俄罗斯想要把美国的原油生产挤出市场,此前已有报道称美国对俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)进行交易制裁并力图阻碍俄罗斯完成北溪2号管道的建设。由于美国油气生产并没有集中管控,所以价格是影响美国生产活动的唯一因素。

 

Q2

Student: What influence it will make to the oil industry in the near future (3-years) and when do you see that the oil price would become stable again?

学生:此次油价震荡对未来三年的石油行业将带来什么影响?您认为何时油价会再次趋于稳定? 

 

Conner:There is a large wall of bond maturity for small to mid-cap producers onshore coming in 2021 and 2022. Combined by lack of capital access from the equity markets and reduced bank financing from lower price decks PLUS investor demands of cash returns, there will be a lack of capital inflows to the sector and because the shale play is where all the US growth has come from, given a declining base of production, you will see a decline in US production. The lower the price the quicker the response in declining production the quicker the price would have a chance to rebound.

 

康纳:未来两年(2021-2022),美国中小型陆上产油企业将大量面临债券到期。此外,缺少来自股票市场的资金来源,受低油价影响而推高的银行融资成本,以及投资人对现金回报的需求等因素交织,都将让行业面临资金流入不足的困境。由于美国的产油增量完全依赖于页岩板块,页岩油产量基数的下滑也就意味着美国石油产量的下降。油价越低,这一产量递减得也就越快,油价也就更有可能早日反弹。


Q3

Student: Before Saudi announced that it would increase oil production, Russia and Saudi have reduced their production, which helped the U.S. shale oil to increase its market share. Now, the world is flooded with cheap oil, what will happen to these U.S. shale companies in short term and long term?

学生:在沙特宣布增加石油产量之前,俄罗斯和沙特已经减少了石油产量,此举助推了美国页岩油提高其市场份额。如今,世界充斥着廉价石油,短期和长期来看,美国页岩油公司将何去何从?

 

Conner:There will be a significant number of bankruptcies. However, currently producing wells will continue to try to pay off debt holders and companies can be sold to other operators with lower cost structures and possibly better liquidity. Bankruptcies in the short term, properties owned by larger companies in the longer term and consolidation to most profitable plays where companies have options of where to spend capital for the best return (overall) and shale is not competitive economically therefore shale production will decline.

 

康纳:美国将会有相当数量的公司破产。但是现有的投产油井将会继续生产以设法偿还债务,有些公司会被卖出,并入成本结构较低以及资金流动性相对更好的公司。短期来看,会出现企业破产;长期来看,关键油气资产会收入大型公司囊中,以盈利表现为基准进行行业整合,而各个公司也会选择将资金投入(总体)回报率最高的业务。鉴于页岩油缺乏经济竞争力,其产量将会下降。


Q4

Student: With this unprecedented oil price slump, could you please share with us your thoughts on any fundamental changes that will happen in the near future in the world economic and political stages?

学生:面对前所未有的油价暴跌,能否请您与我们分享一下您对世界经济政治局势的看法,在不久的将来会发生哪些根本性的变化?

 

Conner:Saudi and Russia will take back over the top spot for producers as the US declines and capital flows out of the space overall (service companies, etc). This will drop the value of the dollar likely as Russia and Saudi fill customers that the US was selling oil to. US oil exports will likely drop and the amount of associated natural gas production will also drop as well. This will increase the price of natural gas that LNG exporters buy.

 

康纳:随着美国石油产量的下降及其整体行业面临的资本流出(包括油气服务公司等),沙特及俄罗斯将会重新夺回石油生产的头把交椅。曾经向美国购买原油的客户将转投沙特及俄罗斯,这很有可能让美元应声下挫。美国的石油出口也可能由此下调,相应的天然气产量也会随之下降。液化天然气出口商也将面临天然气采购价格的攀升。


Q5

Student: What should we do or invest during this low gas (oil? or gasoline?) price?

学生:在油气价格低迷时期,我们应该如何行动?如何投资?

 

Conner:Companies with a high percentage of cost of fuel or raw materials from oil will see a decline in cost and if they can hold revenue could see a margin increase. (airlines when coronavirus is out of the way). Refineries will have a lower feedstock cost. This may also make EVs even less attractive and higher payout unless regulations force a lower sale of ICE cars. Many service companies or small cap onshore US companies will go bankrupt. This shows that it is important to grow a countries energy supplies and energy independence in order to not be held hostage if indeed the Saudi/Russia cooperation returns after putting the US shale in decline and try to raise prices carefully to prevent the US from coming back to fast.

 

康纳:石油原材料成本或燃料成本占比较高的公司将迎来成本下降,如果这些公司能确保营收稳定,那么其利润率将会增加(比如新冠病毒疫情过后的航空业)。炼油厂的原料成本也会降低。除非从监管层面限制燃油车(ICE)销量,否则电动车(EVs)也可能由此失去吸引力,并需要更大幅度的补贴支出。众多服务公司及从事陆上石油开采的美国小企业将面临破产。如果在美国的页岩油产量承压下滑之后,沙特与俄罗斯重新合作,并通过审慎提高原油价格来防范美国迅速回到正轨,那么这也凸显了国家保障能源供给和能源独立的重要性,这样才能不受制于人。